Will My Money Last? Longevity Drawdown Simulator
Example: Portfolio at retirement: 1000000 $ · Annual spending in retirement: 50000 $ · Expected annual portfolio return: 6 % · Inflation rate: 3 % · Retirement age: 65 · Target age to fund through: 90
| Remaining balance at target age | $628,383 |
| Your initial withdrawal rate | 5.00% |
| Portfolio depletes before target age (1=yes, 0=no) | 0 |
| Age portfolio runs out (0 = survives) | 0 |
Worked example
A $1,000,000 portfolio with $50,000 annual spend (5% withdrawal rate), 6% return, and 3% inflation simulated from age 65 to 90 leaves approximately $627,000 at age 90 — the portfolio survives. But at $70,000 spend (7% rate), the same portfolio runs out around age 83, seven years too soon.
Frequently asked questions
What is a safe withdrawal rate?
The original 1994 Bengen study identified 4% as a rate that historically survived 30-year retirements in diversified US portfolios. Subsequent research suggests 3.3%–4.5% varies by portfolio allocation, sequence of returns, and retirement length. Longer retirements (35+ years) warrant lower initial rates.
Does this account for Social Security income?
Enter your net spending after Social Security and any pension income. If SS covers $24,000/year and you need $60,000, enter $36,000 as annual spending — the portfolio only needs to fund the gap.
What return should I use?
A 60/40 stock-bond portfolio has historically returned about 6.5%–7% nominal, or 3.5%–4.5% real (after inflation). For a conservative simulation, use 5–6% nominal with 3% inflation. Adjust based on your allocation.
What happens if my portfolio depletes early?
If the balance hits zero before your target age, the calculator flags the depletion age. Solutions include: reducing spending, delaying retirement, converting a portion to an annuity, taking Social Security later, or working part-time in early retirement.